A Global Manufacturer Enhances Statistical Forecast Accuracy by 15%+ Using Elfonze’s Innovative Forecasting Approach

Madhu Samineni

Chief Delivery Officer & Head – Enterprise Planning and Manufacturing

5 mins

Published : September 17, 2025

About the Client

A global manufacturer that provides innovative solutions for safe drinking water delivery and energy-efficient indoor climate systems. With operations spanning multiple regions, the client depends on accurate forecasts and optimized supply planning to manage complex demand patterns and warehouse operations

The Challenges

The client’s supply chain planning processes were plagued with inefficiencies that reduced forecast reliability and drove up costs:

Inaccurate Forecasts – Statistical shipment forecasts generated by Oracle Cloud were frequently misaligned with real demand trends, forcing planners to rely on manual overrides.
High Manual Intervention – Planners spent excessive time adjusting forecasts, which was error-prone and limited scalability.
Discontinuation Bottlenecks – Product discontinuation tracking was fully manual, leading to delays and frequent errors in updates.
Inefficient Warehouse Transfers – Internal transfers between warehouses were not properly aligned with ship/dock dates, creating scheduling conflicts, higher transportation costs, and underutilized resources.
System Constraints – Lack of segmentation, poor forecast model tuning, and data integration issues with EBS limited the effectiveness of Oracle Cloud Supply Chain Planning.

The result was a disconnect between planning and execution, higher costs, and reduced confidence in forecasts—all of which slowed growth and impacted decision-making.

The Solution

To resolve these inefficiencies, we realigned the client’s Oracle Cloud Supply Chain Planning with best practices, enhanced with automation and custom extensions.

Key solution elements included:

Segmentation-Driven Forecasting
- Introduced automated segmentation of products and customers based on shipment behavior
- Applied tailored forecast models and profiles for each segment, improving alignment with real demand patterns.
Forecast Model Optimization
- Configured and tuned statistical forecast models, trees, and parameters.
- Improved accuracy by aligning system outputs with observed demand trends.
Automation of Product Discontinuation
- Built a custom Oracle Cloud extension to automate discontinuation updates, eliminating manual tracking and reducing planner workload.
Ship/Dock Date Fixes
- Collaborated with Oracle development to implement a targeted code change in the EBS cloud extraction process
- Ensured accurate ship/dock scheduling for inter-warehouse transfers, reducing cost and improving resource use
Governance & Collaboration
- Established checkpoints with planners, IT, and stakeholders for requirement prioritization.
- Delivered iterative demos and knowledge transfer sessions to embed changes smoothly.

Tools Used

Oracle Cloud Supply Chain Planning|Oracle E-Business Suite (EBS)|Forecast Models & Trees|Custom Oracle Cloud Extensions|

Business Impact

The project delivered measurable efficiency gains and restored confidence in planning processes :

15-20%

Improvement in forecast accuracy with statistical models tuned to business realities

40%

Reduction in manual overrides, freeing planners to focus on strategy

100%

Automation of product discontinuation updates, eliminating delays and errors

12%

Lower internal transfer costs through Optimized ship/dock scheduling

25%

Higher planning efficiency, reducing manual workload and increasing system adoption

Established a scalable and reliable planning framework that balances out-of-the-box Oracle capabilities with targeted custom enhancements

What the Client said......

“ We now work with Statistical Forecast & Segmentation groups in our Demand planning. This would have been impossible without Elfonze’s extensive knowledge, their ability to understand the client's needs and capacity to translate the needs into working processes.

Elfonze’s high professionalism and deep dedication make it seem easy to implement complex processes that enhance our ability as a company to improve and grow.”

Senior Specialist, IT Supply Chain

Madhu Samineni

Chief Delivery Officer & Head – Enterprise Planning and Manufacturing

Madhu served as the Planning Architect for this engagement, driving design and delivery of solutions that balanced Oracle’s standard capabilities with custom automation. With deep expertise in manufacturing and supply chain planning, he specializes in practical, scalable solutions that simplify complexity and unlock measurable business value.